CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten says that from a “political angle,” Democrats bested Republicans and President Donald Trump over the government shutdown fight.
The federal government shut down from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, as Congress was unable to pass a continuing resolution to fund it. Senate Democrats continually voted against the resolution because it did not include an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits.
Without subsidies, ACA insurance premiums are expected to spike in 2026.
The stalemate in the Senate ended when 52 Republican senators, seven Democratic senators and Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, approved on a bill on Nov. 10.
Some Democratic officials lambasted the move because the deal did not include extending the ACA tax credits. However, Enten said Democrats are now in a better political position.
Before the shutdown, Democrats led by three points on the generic congressional ballot, according to Enten’s polling aggregate. Following the shutdown, the margin increased to five points.
“Their lead has widened!” Enten said.
While polling for Democrats has improved since the shutdown, Trump’s polling has worsened, according to Enten.
Before the shutdown, Trump’s net approval was -10 points. Now that the shutdown is over, the president’s net approval has fallen to -15 points, according to Enten’s polling aggregate.
“Now it’s at -15 points. The lowest his net approval rating has been during his entire second term in office,” Enten said.
The net approval rating is the difference between the percentage of people who approve of the president and those who disapprove.
As part of the deal made with Republicans to reopen the government, Senate Democrats were promised a vote in December to extend the ACA credits. The House of Representatives, however, has not made such a promise.
Enten said even if the ACA credits don’t get extended, that could still be good news for Democrats. The analyst cited data from a November poll by Marquette University, which found that 70% of respondents supported extending the tax credits.
“This really puts Republicans in a box,” Enten said. “Because if they don’t extend the ACA subsidies, expect that Democrats are gonna hammer, hammer, hammer Republicans over and over again.”
