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Former Sheriff’s Deputy Is Sentenced to 3 Years in Killing of Colorado Man

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A former Colorado sheriff’s deputy was sentenced to three years in prison on Monday in the fatal shooting of a 22-year-old man who called 911 for help as he was experiencing a mental health crisis on a dark mountain road in 2022.

In February, a jury found the former deputy, Andrew Buen, guilty of criminally negligent homicide after declining to convict him on the more serious charge of second-degree murder in the killing of Andrew Glass.

The case drew scrutiny of how the authorities handle crisis intervention, prompted changes to how officers are trained to handle similar situations and resulted in a $19 million settlement for Mr. Glass’s parents.

Before the sentence was handed down, Mr. Buen, a former Clear Creek County sheriff’s deputy, addressed the judge and members of Mr. Glass’s family.

“I wish I could take it all back, and it’s something I think about over and over,” he said through tears. “It’s my mistake that I took the life of Christian and I didn’t recognize that at the time, and it’s something I will always have to live with.”

“Part of the reason I wanted to get into law enforcement,” he added, “was to change the negative view of law enforcement. But my actions did the opposite. I will never forget that I let so many people down.”

Last year, Mr. Buen was found guilty of reckless endangerment in connection with the shooting, but the jury could not reach a verdict on a second-degree murder charge, which carries a maximum penalty of 48 years in prison. That set up a second trial, which lasted two weeks in February.

Judge Catherine J. Cheroutes of Colorado’s Fifth Judicial District Court sentenced Mr. Buen to serve 120 days for the reckless endangerment charge concurrently with his three-year sentence for criminally negligent homicide.

“I think this was about power. It wasn’t a mistake,” Judge Cheroutes said before sentencing Mr. Buen. “It was about ‘You need to listen to me, because I’m in charge.’”

In imposing the maximum three-year sentence on the criminally negligent homicide charge, the judge said: “Mr. Buen doesn’t need rehabilitation. He’s not going to be a law enforcement officer again. He’s not going to have a gun again.”

Mr. Glass called 911 on the night of June 10, 2022, when his Honda Pilot became stuck on an embankment near Silver Plume, Colo., a former silver mining camp about 45 miles west of Denver.

He had become stuck while attempting a three-point turn and had panicked, his father told The New York Times after Mr. Buen was convicted in February. Mr. Glass told a dispatcher that his S.U.V. was stuck in a “trap,” that he was coming out of a depression, that he feared “skinwalkers” and that he needed help.

Officers from five law enforcement agencies responded.

Over the course of a little over an hour, they negotiated with Mr. Glass to get out of his vehicle and drop the knife he had in his possession. At one point, according to body camera footage of the episode, he turned to the closed window, cupping his hands in a heart-shaped gesture at the officers.

At other times, he kept his hands on the steering wheel but did not open the door or window, unlock the vehicle or get out, as the officers had requested. When he did not follow those orders, officers used a stun gun and fired beanbag rounds at him, according to the body camera footage.

Prosecutors said that Mr. Buen broke the front passenger-side window with a baton. Mr. Glass then swung an arm at the broken window, and Mr. Buen shot Mr. Glass five times. Mr. Glass was pronounced dead at the scene.

Lawyers for Mr. Glass’s family have said that the officers needlessly escalated the situation and used unnecessarily aggressive tactics during the encounter.

Mr. Buen returned to work with the Clear Creek County Sheriff’s Office after the shooting but was fired in November 2022 after an indictment against him was made public.

Just before sentencing Mr. Buen, Judge Cheroutes noted that when someone kills a police officer, the sentence is typically “extreme and uncompromising.”

“It’s really kind of amazing to me how Mr. Buen, as soon as you put a uniform on him and give him a gun, it changes everything,” she said.

Victor Mather, Rebecca Halleck and William Lamb contributed reporting.



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Mark Zuckerberg Is Back in the Hot Seat in a Crucial Trial

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Mark Zuckerberg has appeared before Congress more times than any other tech leader. He will testify again soon — as a witness in a federal antitrust trial. Cecilia Kang, a technology reporter for The New York Times, recalls some of Zuckerberg’s past congressional hearings and explains why the stakes are even higher this time.



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Google Says Employees Can Discuss Antitrust Case

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When Google lost its landmark antitrust trial in August, Kent Walker, its top lawyer, reminded employees, for the third time, that they were not allowed to discuss the case with one another or anyone outside the company.

On Friday afternoon, Google rescinded the command as part of a settlement with the Alphabet Workers Union, a group representing some of its employees and contractors, according to an email that Google sent to workers and that was viewed by The New York Times. Alphabet is the parent company of Google.

The company told employees that it would not “announce or maintain overbroad rules or policies that restrict your right to comment, internally or externally,” about how the antitrust lawsuit targeting Google’s search engine might affect the terms and conditions of their employment.

Google’s change of tune was part of a settlement overseen by the National Labor Relations Board. The union had filed an unfair labor practices complaint with the N.L.R.B. concerning Mr. Walker’s note in August.

The agreement is another blow to Google’s corporate policies designed to maintain secrecy, which have been scrutinized amid the search case brought by the Justice Department. It also undercut Google’s strategy to keep its business humming during the lawsuit — to have employees ignore the antitrust battle and remain focused on their work.

Mr. Walker, Google’s president of global affairs, first told employees not to discuss the case when it was filed in October 2020, according to an email viewed by The Times.

“It’s important not to get distracted by this process, including not speculating on legal issues internally or externally,” he wrote, instead directing employees to focus on building great products and services to help people.

He repeated the call in September 2023, when the case went to trial, and again in August, when Google lost that trial. The N.L.R.B. settlement concerned only that final note.

Two months later, Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice president of regulatory affairs, tried to clarify that Mr. Walker’s instructions referred to speaking on Google’s behalf to the public.

“That was the basis of Kent’s earlier request that Googlers refrain from commenting on” the case, she said.

Courtenay Mencini, a Google spokeswoman, said the company disagreed with the N.L.R.B.’s interpretation of its “reasonable request that employees not comment on a pending legal case on behalf of Google without approval.”

“To avoid lengthy litigation, we agreed to remind employees that they have the right to talk about their employment, as they’ve always been free to and regularly do,” she added.

The Justice Department has called for a breakup of Google, including a divestment of Chrome, its popular web browser, among other remedies meant to restore competition in search. Amit P. Mehta, a federal judge, will decide what remedies to impose by August.

It has been hard to tune all of the legal machinations out, Stephen McMurtry, a senior software engineer at Google search and a member of the union, said in an interview.

“Amongst employees generally, there is fear of instability that the breakups could provide to our employment, working conditions, compensation, all sorts of things,” Mr. McMurtry said.

Like other large tech companies, Google has established a pattern of secrecy in its culture and corporate communications. After Microsoft’s legal defense was hamstrung by damaging emails during its antitrust trial a quarter century ago, Google tried to learn from the company’s example by telling employees not to say anything that might make the company’s conduct sound anticompetitive.

Google also routinely discussed sensitive business matters in instant messages that were automatically deleted, though the company said it had handed over many chats to the Justice Department.



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Student Loan Borrowers Blocked from Affordable Repayment Plans

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Federal student loan borrowers are temporarily unable to apply to income-driven repayment plans, a decades-old safety net that ties their monthly loan payment size to household income levels, as the U.S. Education Department reviews a recent federal court ruling.

The department closed applications to the repayment plans last week after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit upheld and expanded a temporary suspension of the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, known as SAVE.

That income-driven program, a centerpiece of the Biden administration’s policy agenda with eight million enrolled borrowers, generated lower payments than previous plans. Given its high cost, SAVE became the target of two separate legal challenges last spring by two groups of Republican-led states, which argued that the Biden administration had overstepped its authority.

The SAVE plan has been in legal limbo ever since, and participants’ payments have been on hold since last summer. But last week, applications to the three other income-driven plans were also taken down — older programs that hadn’t been subject to any litigation. That effectively shut the door to more affordable plans for borrowers in financial distress, and eliminated a crucial component needed to participate in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program — at least temporarily.

“The department is reviewing repayment applications to conform with the Eighth Circuit’s ruling,” a spokesman for the Education Department said Thursday, adding that it updated information for borrowers on StudentAid.gov, including on a page about court actions related to SAVE.

Here’s what we know now. The situation is fluid, so we’ll update as circumstances change.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit upheld a temporary ban on a portion of the SAVE plan issued by the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. The appeals court sent the case back to the District Court with instructions to expand the preliminary injunction to the entire SAVE rule (though other legal rulings had already temporarily suspended the program).

But the appellate court didn’t stop there: The judges also said the secretary of the Department of Education lacked the explicit authority to grant loan forgiveness in any Income-Contingent Repayment plans, even though it has been done for more than three decades. (Borrowers make monthly payments equal to a percentage of their discretionary income, which varies across income-driven plans. But after a set number of years, usually 20 to 25, any remaining balance is canceled.)

“This is a radical departure from how this statute has been interpreted and administered for nearly 30 years,” said Michele Zampini, senior director of college affordability at the Institute for College Access and Success, a research and advocacy group.

The Education Department posted a banner on its website that said the injunction prevented it from administering SAVE and parts of other income-driven plans — and, as a result, applications for those plans and online loan consolidations were unavailable.

It is important to remember that the decision is not final and that litigation is continuing, said Abby Shafroth, director of the National Consumer Law Center’s Student Loan Borrower Assistance Project. “But the decision is very worrying for borrowers who depend on the SAVE plan to manage their payments and work toward being debt free,” she said.

Scott Buchanan, the executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, an industry group, said he would expect that applications for at least one of the income-driven plans, known as Income-Based Repayment, would become available again “as soon as practical.”

The reasons are complicated: That’s because the Income-Based Repayment plan was created as part of a July 2009 law, which explicitly permits loan cancellation at the end of the repayment term, whereas SAVE was a regulation established by the department using authority established under a 1993 law. The states that initially brought the lawsuit argued that loan cancellation wasn’t explicitly permitted under the 1993 law, and the appellate court sided with that interpretation.

But the department has relied on that authority to create three other income-driven programs, all before SAVE, each of which incrementally improved on the plans before it. They were Income-Contingent Repayment, introduced in 1994; Pay as You Earn (PAYE), introduced in 2012; and Revised Pay as You Earn (REPAYE), which became available in 2015 and was replaced by SAVE.

No, all applications have been temporarily halted, according to Mr. Buchanan, of the alliance. He said that the servicers had received instructions to stop processing the income-driven and loan consolidation applications for three months, but that he expected they would receive additional guidance in the coming weeks.

Monthly payments are still being collected on the other existing income-driven plans (Income-Based Repayment, Pay as You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment) while SAVE borrowers remain in an interest-free forbearance while the litigation continues.

Yes, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program is still open to government and nonprofit employees such as public schoolteachers, librarians and public defenders. After 120 qualifying payments are made, any remaining balance is wiped out.

But there is currently one major obstruction: Most borrowers need to be enrolled in an income-driven repayment plan to be eligible for loan cancellation, and it’s not possible to apply to any of those plans right now.

If you’re already in a qualifying repayment plan, however, and you become newly eligible for the public service program (because of a new job, for example), you can still enroll. But if you’re in the SAVE plan, where payments have been halted because of the ongoing litigation, your qualifying payments have also been put on hold — and you can’t make any progress toward forgiveness.

The public service program, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, is not at risk right now, and student loan experts say there isn’t a broad appetite to dismantle the popular program, which would require Congress to pass a bill.

More than two million people are enrolled in the public service program, and hundreds of thousands of them are approaching the finish line: 21,700 borrowers have made enough payments to qualify for cancellation, while 330,100 had made 97 to 119 qualifying payments as of Dec. 31, according to data from the Education Department’s Federal Student Aid office.

Borrowers who are enrolled in the SAVE plan and have nearly enough qualifying payments currently have few good options.

“Borrowers stuck in SAVE can either wait for the I.D.R. applications to open back up and switch to another I.D.R. plan,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a group that provides free guidance to borrowers. “Or ride out the SAVE forbearance and plan on using what’s called ‘buy back’ to get credit for those months once they have certified 120 months of eligible employment.”

Using the so-called buy back option, borrowers would need to make payments for the months their payments were paused in forbearance. Given the history of the complex program and the fact that many borrowers had found themselves in nightmarish situations and unable to receive forgiveness, be sure to document and keep copies or snapshots of everything — your work history with your eligible employer, all qualifying payments, recertification applications, all of it.

There are other options besides income-driven repayment plans that can generally be requested through your loan servicer or the company that manages your payments. Borrowers can temporarily pause payments through deferments or forbearance, but those programs have different eligibility requirements and consequences, largely because of the way interest is treated.

“Borrowers can receive deferments for things such as economic hardship or being unemployed,” said Ms. Mayotte of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors. “Forbearances are generally applied in cases of less specific financial hardship.”

There are other repayment plans that can lower your monthly obligation: graduated repayment, where payments start lower and rise over time, and extended repayment, which lowers the monthly payment by lengthening the loan term.

Simply consolidating your loans can also lower your monthly payments by extending the repayment period, but there are drawbacks. You may have a higher interest rate on all of your debt, and you’ll end up paying more overall.

And Ms. Shafroth, of the law center, said she would be wary of consolidating until it was clear whether the latest legal development would block all income-driven repayment regulations introduced in 2023. Those rules included a provision that protected borrowers from losing all of their payments that counted toward cancellation of income-driven loans. Before the rule, loan consolidation restarted that clock.

Each year, borrowers enrolled in income-driven repayment plans must recertify their income or face negative consequences, including being kicked out of the repayment plan. But those applications are also not available right now.

For now, it’s not something you need to worry about, Mr. Buchanan said. The loan servicers have been instructed to push back those deadlines on a month-by-month basis, and will be in touch with borrowers when they receive more clarity from the Education Department.

It would seem logical. But several student loan experts said the administration might have strategic reasons to keep SAVE alive, at least for a while. Republicans may be able to make changes to the program through the enormous budget package that Congress will attempt to pass using a process known as reconciliation. That may enable Republicans to capture and cut the projected spending from SAVE to fund other initiatives.

“There is interplay between this and reconciliation, where I think they are trying to legislate SAVE off the books to pay for tax cuts for billionaires, instead of ending the program through the courts,” said Persis Yu, deputy executive director of the Student Borrower Protection Center, an advocacy group.

The Education Department did not immediately comment.

It’s hard to know exactly what will happen. When the Biden administration replaced the REPAYE income-driven repayment plan with the SAVE program, REPAYE enrollees were automatically transferred into the new plan. But in that case, they were receiving improved terms.

Still, it may be more difficult to take something away. “It’s too soon to say for sure,” said Ms. Shafroth, of the law center. “Existing borrowers may have contractual rights to the key benefits in these programs, regardless of whether they’re currently enrolled in them.”

That may be why proposals to streamline income-driven programs have typically grandfathered in existing borrowers, she added, and eliminated the plans only for new borrowers.



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Mehul Choksi, Fugitive Jeweler Wanted by India, Is Arrested in Belgium

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Mehul Choksi, a wealthy diamond dealer whom India has sought in connection with a fraud case involving one of India’s largest state-run banks, has been arrested in Belgium, his lawyer said on Monday.

Mr. Choksi, 65, is wanted on charges relating to an attempt to defraud the publicly owned Punjab National Bank of nearly $1.8 billion in a case that caused a national scandal when it became public in 2018.

Mr. Choksi left India shortly before the authorities there went public with the accusations against him that year. He has been living in the Caribbean and in Belgium since then, according to the Indian news media.

Police officers in the Belgian city of Antwerp, a center of the global diamond trade, arrested Mr. Choksi on Saturday, according to the Belgian public prosecutor’s office, which said it had requested the arrest.

The Belgian authorities did not immediately provide details of the circumstances that led to Mr. Choksi’s arrest, but his lawyer, Vijay Aggarwal, said in an interview that India’s Central Bureau of Investigation, the main government investigative agency, had asked for Mr. Choksi’s extradition.

Mr. Aggarwal said that he would seek his client’s immediate release, arguing that he was in ill health and undergoing treatment for cancer.

“He is not a flight risk,” Mr. Aggarwal told a news conference in Delhi. “His medical condition is very precarious.”

Mr. Aggarwal has denied accusations of wrongdoing in the case. Since leaving India, he has also spent time in Dominica and Antigua, two countries in the Caribbean, according to the Indian news media.

Mr. Choksi’s nephew Nirav Modi, once one of India’s most prominent high-end jewelers, was arrested in London in 2019 in connection with the bank fraud. Mr. Modi, who has also denied wrongdoing, had fled India weeks before officials there accused him, Mr. Choksi and others in the fraud case. Mr. Modi has fought Indian efforts to have him extradited, and remains jailed in Britain.

The case against Mr. Choksi and Mr. Modi reinforced a perception in India that taxpayer-owned banks were financing the lavish lifestyles of a rising elite. Attempts to bring the two to justice have captivated the Indian public.

Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting from Brussels and Mike Ives from Seoul, South Korea.



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Inside Trump’s Pressure Campaign on Universities

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As he finished lunch in the private dining room outside the Oval Office on April 1, President Trump floated an astounding proposal: What if the government simply canceled every dollar of the nearly $9 billion promised to Harvard University?

The administration’s campaign to expunge “woke” ideology from college campuses had already forced Columbia University to strike a deal. Now, the White House was eyeing the nation’s oldest and wealthiest university.

“What if we never pay them?” Mr. Trump casually asked, according to a person familiar with the conversation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private discussion. “Wouldn’t that be cool?”

The moment underscored the aggressive, ad hoc approach continuing to shape one of the new administration’s most consequential policies.

Mr. Trump and his top aides are exerting control of huge sums of federal research money to shift the ideological tilt of the higher education system, which they see as hostile to conservatives and intent on perpetuating liberalism.

Their effort was energized by the campus protests against Israel’s response to the October 2023 terrorist attack by Hamas, demonstrations during which Jewish students were sometimes harassed. Soon after taking office, Mr. Trump opened the Task Force to Combat Antisemitism, which is scrutinizing leading universities for potential civil rights violations and serving as an entry point to pressure schools to reassess their policies.

It is backed by the influence of Stephen Miller, who is Mr. Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy and the architect of much of the president’s domestic agenda.

The opaque process is upending campuses nationwide, leaving elite institutions, long accustomed to operating with relative freedom from Washington, reeling from a blunt-force political attack that is at the leading edge of a bigger cultural battle.

The task force includes about 20 administration officials, most of whom the government has not publicly identified, citing potential security risks. They meet each week inside a rotating list of federal agency headquarters in Washington to discuss reports of discrimination on college campuses, review grants to universities and write up discoveries and recommendations for Mr. Trump.

On a parallel track, a few powerful aides in the West Wing, including Mr. Miller, have separately moved to stymie funding for major institutions without formally going through the task force.

These aides have spoken privately of toppling a high-profile university to signal their seriousness, said two people familiar with the conversations. And they have already partially suspended research funding for more than twice as many schools as has the task force, according to those familiar with their work.

This account of the inner workings of the higher education pressure campaign is based on interviews with more than two dozen senior administration officials, university leaders and outside advisers for both sides. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations or because they feared retribution against their campuses.

The White House scored an early win with Columbia’s capitulation last month to a list of demands that included tightening disciplinary policies and installing new oversight of the university’s Middle Eastern, South Asian and African Studies Department.

Since then, the Trump administration expanded its focus to six more of the nation’s most exclusive universities, including Harvard.

By the time Mr. Trump privately discussed stopping all payments to Harvard, the task force had opened a funding review. The administration soon demanded that the university impose bans on masking, cease admission policies based on race and “commit to full cooperation” with the Department of Homeland Security, which enforces immigration policies. If not, Harvard risks losing public funds, among other penalties.

Harvard’s president, Alan M. Garber, has said nothing publicly about the government’s demands but wrote in a recent open letter that the university would engage with task force members “to ensure that they have a full account of the work we have done and the actions we will take going forward to combat antisemitism.”

The scope of the administration’s campaign is poised to widen. The Education Department has warned 60 universities that they could face repercussions from pending investigations into accusations of antisemitism.

The push comes as public confidence in higher education has plummeted in the past decade, according to a Gallup poll in July. The decline was driven mostly by concerns of colleges pushing political agendas, not teaching relevant skills, and the costs, the survey showed.

Still, university leaders have been stunned by the swift assault, with no clear sense of how the Trump administration chooses its targets, on what basis it is formulating penalties, or how to push back. Many see the effort as a widespread attack on academic freedom aimed at crushing the influence of higher education.

“I’ve never seen this degree of government intrusion, encroachment into academic decision-making — nothing like this,” said Lee C. Bollinger, who spent 21 years as Columbia’s president and more than five years leading the University of Michigan.

For their part, Trump administration officials and their allies say they are trying to hold accountable a system that each year receives about $60 billion in federal research funds while educating about 15 million undergraduates.

“We’re not looking to just file lawsuits — we want to compel a cultural change in how Jewish Americans are treated on college campuses,” Attorney General Pam Bondi, a member of the task force, said in an interview.

But the effort has gone beyond addressing antisemitism, with schools targeted for diversity programs and supporting transgender athletes. In the view of some of Mr. Trump’s closest advisers and key donors, leftists have seized control of America’s most powerful institutions, including pillars of higher education, and wresting back power is key to the future of Western civilization.

“The universities seem all powerful and they have acted as if they were all powerful, and we’re finally revealing that we can hit that where it hurts,” Christopher F. Rufo, a conservative activist who has championed the strategy, said in an interview.

During last year’s presidential campaign, Mr. Trump looked out from his rally stages and described a nation he viewed as rampant with discrimination against conservatives.

And for him, nowhere was political injustice as pervasive as on college campuses run by “Marxist maniacs and lunatics.”

Weeks after opening his third presidential bid, Mr. Trump had announced a “free speech policy initiative,” promising to strip federal research dollars and student loan support from universities involved in what he generalized as “censorship activities or election interferences.”

Six months later, he complained about “racial discrimination” in higher education, suggesting universities were increasingly hostile to white students. He vowed to open civil rights investigations into schools that promoted diversity, and he doubled down on those threats when the Supreme Court rejected affirmative action in college admissions.

At the same time, Mr. Miller, the longtime Trump adviser, was working on similar issues at America First Legal, the nonprofit he started during the Biden administration. The group has sued New York University and Northwestern University, accusing them of discriminating against white men.

Mr. Trump turned more forcefully to combating antisemitism as a political rallying cry after Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants led an attack that killed more than 1,200 people in Israel in what was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. War in Gaza followed, and so did months of protests, particularly among pro-Palestinian students on college campuses. Thousands were arrested as they occupied presidents’ offices, harassed Jewish students, erected makeshift encampments and disrupted graduation ceremonies.

From the campaign trail, Mr. Trump cast the protests in personal terms, claiming that “raging lunatics” were demonstrating on campuses to distract from immigration issues central to his campaign.

“To every college president,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in Waukesha, Wis., “vanquish the radicals and take back our campuses for all of the normal students.”

The task force to combat antisemitism was announced on Feb. 1, with the stated goal to “eradicate antisemitic harassment in schools and on college campuses.” The exact metrics to measure that progress remain unclear.

The administration has declined to identify all members of the group, but its titular head is Leo Terrell, the senior counsel in the Justice Department’s civil rights division. A fixture on social media and Fox News’s “Hannity” show, Mr. Terrell is a Trump favorite.

The public face of the task force has largely been Linda McMahon, the education secretary. Other identified members include Josh Gruenbaum, a top official at the General Services Administration, and Sean Keveney, the acting general counsel at the health department.

Coordinated through the Justice Department’s civil rights division, the task force also includes officials from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The commission is investigating “dozens” of antisemitism complaints on college campuses that could become part of the task force’s investigation, according to two task force members. The group also includes data specialists, civil rights lawyers and former academics in the government.

In February, task force members announced a special focus on 10 universities: Columbia; George Washington University; Harvard; Johns Hopkins University; N.Y.U.; Northwestern; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of California, Los Angeles; the University of Minnesota; and the University of Southern California.

The task force said it planned to visit each school and hold meetings with administrators, students, local law enforcement officials and community members.

By going after Columbia and Harvard early, the task force set the tone.

The goal, one senior administration official said, was to make examples of elite schools to intimidate other universities.

The White House also zeroed in on another five schools — Brown University, Cornell University, Northwestern, the University of Pennsylvania and Princeton University, according to people familiar with the process.

All have had millions in federal funding suspended, threatening projects, laboratories and jobs, and upending a multigenerational pact between the government and universities. Since around World War II, colleges have been at the heart of the American research system.

The amount of research funding that has been targeted at each university has varied widely, and there have been few indications of how officials are landing on specific dollar amounts.

One task force member said the figures were determined as part of the group’s deliberations, which weighed the volume of grants and contracts promised to a school, the disparities in disciplinary policies, and the institution’s willingness to adopt changes and progress toward those goals.

Ultimately, the group recommends to Mr. Trump whether the government should cut funding, as it did before canceling contracts with Columbia last month, according to people familiar with the process.

In that case, the task force notified the school on March 3 that it was reviewing grants. Four days later, on March 7, it cited Columbia’s “continued failure to end the persistent harassment of Jewish students” and canceled $400 million in contracts and grants.

Ms. McMahon delivered the news in person that day to Katrina Armstrong, who has since left her post as Columbia’s interim president. Soon after, Ms. McMahon said, leaders of schools such as Harvard and Yale scheduled meetings with her.

“They wanted to make sure we knew they were reviewing their policies,” Ms. McMahon said in an interview. “The presidents that I’ve spoken to have been very cordial, but very sincere in their effort to make sure that they were doing everything that they needed on their campus to protect students.”

Some universities got wind that their institutions were under scrutiny only when stop-work orders for federally funded research trickled in. On one campus, a faculty member heard from a government program officer that a cut to research money was imminent — a warning that sent campus leaders scrambling.

J. Larry Jameson, Penn’s president, said last month that the university learned “through various news outlets” that the Trump administration was suspending about $175 million for research projects. Brown’s provost sent a memo about “troubling rumors” shortly before White House officials said, with little fanfare, that the administration planned to stop $510 million in funding.

After The Daily Caller, a conservative media outlet, reported that $210 million in research funding to Princeton was suspended, the university’s president, Christopher L. Eisgruber, wrote in a campus email that “the full rationale for this action is not yet clear.” When The New York Times asked the White House for comment, a spokeswoman replied with a link to a Daily Caller reporter’s social media post and only three words: “This is accurate.”

Some school administrators have said that murkiness has complicated considerations of court challenges.

They are left feeling in the dark, one university official said.

Mr. Eisgruber wrote in The Atlantic last month that the Trump administration’s moves against Columbia were creating “the greatest threat to American universities since the Red Scare of the 1950s.”

“There is a pattern here of intrusions in academic freedom of strong universities that should be of concern to every American,” he said in an interview on “The Daily,” a podcast from The Times.

In the scramble for self-defense, some university leaders have reached out to Jewish activists to push back on what they view as the administration’s overly broad definition of antisemitism.

Other schools have focused on outreach to Mr. Trump through his allies. Harvard hired as a lobbyist Brian Ballard, a former Trump campaign finance chairman whose firm once employed Susie Wiles, Mr. Trump’s chief of staff, and Ms. Bondi, the attorney general. Dartmouth installed a former chief counsel at the Republican National Committee as the college’s top lawyer.

But it is unclear how much these connections will help. The key staff members on the issue inside the West Wing are Mr. Miller; Vince Haley, the head of the domestic policy council; and May Mailman, senior policy strategist — all three of whom are seen as hard-line culture warriors resistant to lobbying.

In the long run, the goal of Mr. Trump and his allies is to permanently disrupt the elite world of higher education.

“We want to set them back a generation or two,” Mr. Rufo said.

The administration’s zeal has flummoxed even some close Trump allies concerned that the pressure campaign could set a troubling precedent for future administrations that, for example, decide to “eradicate” sexism from college campuses or bigots from the faculty. Who gets to decide which people fall into what category and when?

Inside the White House, such worries are dismissed. That kind of thinking held back the first Trump administration, officials said. They are not concerned about what the political left might do in the future, they said, but instead are focused on setting in motion long-term change.



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Republicans Debate Higher Taxes on the Rich

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As Republicans prepare to cut trillions of dollars in taxes, they are grasping for ways to keep down costs. There are the typical conservative ideas for doing so, like cuts to health care programs, and the inventive ones, like changing how the budget is measured in the first place.

And then there is an unorthodox option Republicans on Capitol Hill and in the Trump administration are quietly considering: a tax increase on the rich.

The idea is one of many tax changes Republicans are floating. Lawmakers and lobbyists expect the party’s anti-tax antibodies to kick in and eventually block it. But even the possibility of raising taxes on high-income Americans has stirred a debate among Republicans about the party’s relationship with the richest Americans as their base of support increasingly comes from the working class.

“You’ve got these two conflicting streams of thought within the Republican Party,” said Dave Kautter, a Treasury official under the first Trump administration. “There’s ‘Let’s raise the rate so we can provide relief for lower- and middle-income people who are now part of our coalition,’ versus the traditional few that say, ‘The top rate should be as low as we can get it.’”

At issue is the marginal tax rate for Americans in the highest income bracket, a group that is largely made up of the top 1 percent of earners. Under the income tax system, Americans pay a higher rate for every dollar they make above increasing thresholds.

In their last major tax cut, in 2017, Republicans lowered marginal tax rates across income levels, including the top rate, which dropped to 37 percent from 39.6 percent. Like many of the other tax cuts Republicans passed that year, the 37 percent rate is set to expire at the end of the year if Congress does not pass another law renewing it.

For Republicans struggling with the roughly $4 trillion cost of continuing the 2017 cuts, letting the top rate snap back to 39.6 percent would be an easy way to reduce the cost of the bill. Not only would such a move save roughly $366 billion, according to the Tax Policy Center, a think tank in Washington, it could also help inoculate Republicans against attacks from Democrats accusing them of seeking to cut taxes for the rich at the expense of programs that help the poor.

So could creating another income bracket. Right now, the 37 percent rate kicks in on earnings above $609,351 for a single American. Another option would create a new income threshold, say $1 million per year, and tax earnings above that level at a higher rate.

Republicans on Capitol Hill and in the administration described the ideas as part of the early brainstorming process for their tax bill. Democrats have tried and failed to make similar moves, and without a clear champion the ideas could fizzle out. Some Republicans quickly promised to try and kill any tax increases, and leadership was circumspect.

“Generally, we’re trying to reduce taxes around here, so that’s a general principle; we’ll have to see,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, said when asked about the possibility of raising taxes on rich Americans.

At the same time, Republicans face deep internal pressure to not blow out the deficit with the bill they are planning, pushing the party to consider ideas it would usually avoid.

“We’ve got this incredible national debt, and so at some point you’ve got to address the elephant in the room,” Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, said on raising the top rate. “Can’t tell you if it’s going to happen or not.”

After months of scrimmaging, the House and Senate in recent weeks approved a resolution outlining the contours of the legislation. Agreeing to the budget outline was the first step along a fast-track procedure, called reconciliation, for passing a bill without Democratic support in the Senate. Some Republicans only reluctantly agreed to vote for the budget blueprint and demanded that the final bill show more fiscal discipline.

Even if Republicans raised taxes on rich Americans, much of the legislation would still be dedicated to cutting taxes. Beyond continuing the 2017 tax cuts, Republicans are trying to figure out how to turn into law President Trump’s promises to not tax tips, overtime pay or Social Security benefits. And lawmakers have additional demands, some of which would provide tax breaks that help the rich, including lifting the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction and eliminating the estate tax.

Those proposals are expensive, so lawmakers are studying ways to raise other taxes and craft a bill that falls within the budget they agreed to. (House Republicans have given themselves $4.5 trillion budget for tax cuts, while Senate Republicans have an allowance of roughly $5.3 trillion.)

But other ideas for raising revenue also have problems. Some Republicans whose states have benefited from clean-energy incentives have said they would oppose the total repeal of the tax credits, for example. There’s also concern about limiting how much companies can deduct in state and local taxes, another idea for raising taxes that has gained some ground. Mr. Trump’s pitch to eliminate carried interest, a loophole that hedge fund and private equity managers have enjoyed, would have to overcome fierce industry resistance, which has killed other recent attempts to narrow the tax break.

Even Republicans who say they could support raising the top individual income rate worry about how doing so could affect business owners. Many businesses pass their profits directly onto owners, who then owe individual income taxes on the earnings. In 2017, Republicans created a deduction for the owners of these businesses, often called pass-throughs, and industry groups are now furiously lobbying to protect the lower rates.

“I think as long as we can tailor it to where small businesses are not swept into it, I’m open to it,” Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, said of raising the top individual rate.

Other Republicans believe raising the top rate could help the party reorient its economic agenda. Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, who has opposed cuts to the safety-net in the bill, said he recently spoke with Mr. Trump about the need to create tax breaks for low- and working-class Americans who did not owe much in income tax. Mr. Hawley is open to raising taxes on the rich to pay for a tax break for lower-income Americans.

“I think we need to cut taxes for working folks, so if the president wants to offset that, then I’m definitely open to it,” Mr. Hawley said. “I would go so far as to argue that’s the core of his base. So we need to do something for those folks.”



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What If Mark Zuckerberg Had Not Bought Instagram and WhatsApp?

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In 2012, when Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg cut a $1 billion check to buy the photo-sharing app Instagram, most people thought he had lost his marbles.

“A billion dollars of money?” joked Jon Stewart, then the host of The Daily Show. “For a thing that kind of ruins your pictures?”

Mr. Stewart called the decision “really lame.” His audience — and much of the rest of the world — agreed that Mr. Zuckerberg had overpaid for an app that highlighted a bunch of photo filters.

Two years later, Mr. Zuckerberg opened his wallet again when Facebook agreed to buy WhatsApp for $19 billion. Many Americans had never heard of the messaging app, which was popular internationally but was not well known in the United States.

No one knew how these deals would turn out. But hindsight, it seems, is 20/20.

On Monday, the government argued in a landmark antitrust trial that both acquisitions — now considered among the greatest in Silicon Valley history — were the actions of a monopolist guarding his turf. Mr. Zuckerberg, in turn, was set to contend that were it not for these deals, his company — which has been renamed Meta — would just be an afterthought in the social media landscape.

But the case, which could bring about the breakup of one of tech’s most powerful companies, largely deals in hypotheticals. Neither the government nor Mr. Zuckerberg could have predicted how technology would progress since his $1 billion check for Instagram, or what would have happened if regulators had not approved the purchases. That makes Meta’s antitrust case one of the most slippery in a tech industry that has long been defined by unpredictability.

“It was a very, very different time in Silicon Valley,” said Margaret O’Mara, a tech historian at the University of Washington, about Facebook’s acquisitions. “There was a vibe of ‘Oh wow, Facebook really is just a bunch of kids spending extravagantly!’”

I happened to have a front-row seat into Facebook’s deal making at the time, especially with Instagram. As a reporter for Wired Magazine, my office in San Francisco was next to Instagram’s headquarters. I frequented the kimchi burrito place across the street near South Park Commons — a slice of green in the city — and ate on a bench outside Instagram’s office.

Kevin Systrom, Instagram’s six-foot-five co-founder, was then 28. He often walked laps around the wood-and-iron swing set in South Park Commons while taking calls or talking product ideas with employees. Jack Dorsey, a co-founder of Twitter who identified as more of an art kid than a techie, also hung out at the same South Park playground and mused to friends about ideas that eventually became his social media app.

This was still the era in which social apps were dismissed as playthings, for posting latte art or telling people what you were having for breakfast. WhatsApp, which was growing quickly internationally, was a text messaging app without a business model. And clones of these apps were plentiful, such as Color, Flickr and VSCO in photo sharing, and Kik, Skype and Viber in messaging.

Even Facebook faced questions then about whether it was a viable business. Two months after the Silicon Valley company announced it was buying Instagram, it held one of the most disastrous tech initial public offerings since the late 1990s dot-com era.

By the time Mr. Systrom testified three months later to the California Department of Corporations — a condition of closing the deal with Facebook — shares of Facebook had fallen by nearly half from their I.P.O. price.

But in Silicon Valley, fortunes rise and fall quickly. Companies go from frivolous fancies to juggernauts in just a few years. And what may look like a shrewd business move by an executive one moment can be quickly ridiculed as a misstep the next. (Half of the aforementioned apps are dead, dying or were sold for parts long ago. My favorite kimchi burrito place is also no longer around.)

At the time, Mr. Systrom gave a positive spin on the Instagram deal as the future looked increasingly grim for Facebook.

“I’ve been taught throughout my life that there’s upside and downside in all public markets,” he said at the California Department of Corporations hearing in August 2012, which I attended on the sixth floor of the department in downtown San Francisco. “I still believe firmly in the long-term value of Facebook.”

He turned out to be right. Today, Instagram and WhatsApp are two of the most important parts of Meta’s business. Posts, videos and communications on the platforms regularly drive global conversations for sports, news, politics and culture. The apps have billions of users.

In some ways, the antitrust trial will be about competing versions of what tech history could have been. What would have happened if, say, Mr. Zuckerberg had lost the bid for Instagram to Mr. Dorsey, who was also trying to buy the photo-sharing app for Twitter? What if WhatsApp had sold to Google, which was champing at the bit to add the messaging app to its own portfolio?

What if other competitors had created superior photo-sharing apps that could have thrived if Facebook hadn’t used Instagram to crush them? And what if Facebook had screwed up both deals, or could not keep up with competing apps and fell behind even after buying Instagram and WhatsApp?

These are unknowable and can only be answered by someone with a time machine. Each side will argue their version of what would have occurred if Meta’s acquisitions had never been approved.

On the same Daily Show segment from 2012, Jessica Williams, the senior youth correspondent, said — tongue fully in cheek — that Facebook’s purchase of Instagram made perfect sense.

“Before Instagram, if I wanted my pictures to look like they were taken in the ’60s, I’d have to invent a time machine and travel back 50 years,” she said. “You know how much a time machine would cost to build?”

“Easily a billion dollars.”



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Buying a Home? Without the CFPB, You Need to Be Your Own Watchdog.

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House prices are stubbornly high, and mortgage rates remain substantially above their prepandemic level. Now, with the spring home buying season looming, shoppers have a new worry: A major federal consumer watchdog has been hobbled.

Without the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency responsible for overseeing most aspects of the home buying process, consumer advocates say home buyers need to be their own watchdogs.

“Now, when you buy a house, you are much more vulnerable to being misled,” said Sharon Cornelissen, housing director with the Consumer Federation of America. “It’s important to be on guard, because guardrails are being taken away.”

Buying a home is the biggest financial decision most Americans will make in their lives. The typical home price is about $397,000, according to the National Association of Realtors, but prices are far higher in some parts of the country. In several California counties, for instance, the median price at the end of last year was over $1.5 million, with monthly mortgage payments over $8,000.

The consumer bureau was created after the financial and housing crisis in 2007-8 to streamline oversight of lenders and financial companies serving consumers. Over the years, the bureau has moved to ease the mortgage shopping process by offering simplified forms and educational tools, and has taken action against an array of banks and lenders. In 2022, for instance, the bureau ordered Wells Fargo to pay $3.7 billion for mishandling a variety of customer accounts, including improperly denying thousands of requests for mortgage loan modifications that in some cases led borrowers to lose their homes to “wrongful” foreclosures.

On Jan. 17, in the final days of the Biden administration, the bureau reached a settlement with Draper and Kramer Mortgage Corporation for discouraging borrowers from applying for loans to buy homes in majority Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in Chicago and Boston. In an email, the lender’s lawyers said Draper and Kramer “considers the matter closed and denies” the bureau’s claims, but chose to settle in part to avoid “protracted legal costs.”

Since President Trump took office on Jan. 20, the consumer bureau has taken a hands-off approach. Last month, it dropped legal action against Rocket Homes Real Estate, which had been accused in December of illegally steering prospective borrowers to an affiliate, Rocket Mortgage. In an emailed statement, Rocket Homes said it “has always connected buyers with top-performing agents based only on objective criteria like how well they helped home buyers achieve their dream of homeownership.”

The bureau also dropped a suit against Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, for making loans to buyers of manufactured homes who it knew could not afford to repay them. A rule requiring mortgage lenders to verify that borrowers are able to pay was a key aspect of changes put in place after the financial crisis, when many people lost their homes because they couldn’t make their loan payments. In a prior statement, Vanderbilt said the lawsuit was “unfounded and untrue, and is the latest example of politically motivated, regulatory overreach.” Vanderbilt also said it exceeds legal requirements for assessing a borrower’s ability to pay.

Alys Cohen, a senior attorney with the National Consumer Law Center, said the bureau had effectively stopped overseeing if lenders were complying with consumer protection laws. Other federal regulators oversee banks, she said, but their main focus is an institution’s overall safety and soundness, rather than its treatment of consumers. States also regulate banks and other lenders.

“People may be exposed to high prices and hidden relationships they may not know about,” she said. (The center has joined a lawsuit opposing the administration’s efforts to dismantle the consumer bureau.)

The consumer bureau didn’t respond to an email seeking comment on its activities.

The relaxed oversight comes as buyers navigate what has been a challenging housing market. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement that “it’s evident that elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates strained affordability” in January, when pending home sales fell almost 5 percent.

Mortgage rates have dipped recently, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home loan falling to 6.63 percent as of Thursday, down from 6.76 percent a week earlier, the mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac reported.

Research by the consumer bureau found that only about half of borrowers shop for better terms and interest rates when taking out a new home loan or refinancing a mortgage. That may be because getting quotes takes time, and consumers may get confused when comparing complex choices, leading them to rely on a loan officer they already know or a single referral from a real estate agent or friend.

Yet shopping around with different lenders to compare costs can save borrowers thousands of dollars, according to research from Freddie Mac. Getting two rate quotes could save as much as $600 annually, and getting at least four quotes could save more than $1,200 a year, Freddie Mac said.

Home buyers use referrals from their real estate agents for providers like title insurers and home inspectors, but borrowers should shop around for these providers as well, housing advocates say. The consumer bureau found last year that home loan closing costs had risen significantly, in part because rising interest rates were leading more borrowers to pay upfront for “discount points,” to reduce the rate on their loans.

Ms. Cohen, of the consumer law center, also suggested taking a home buyer education course, particularly if you are a first-time buyer. (Lenders may require the courses in some cases, such as if you seek help with a down payment.) The courses, offered in person or online, help shoppers understand what’s involved in finding, financing and owning a home, including how to select a lender. To find a course approved by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, check the agency’s website.

You can file a complaint with the consumer bureau, although it’s unclear if complaints are being processed. “The law stands,” Ms. Cornelissen said. “It’s just harder to enforce” without the bureau.

In a court filing this week, the chief of staff for the bureau’s office of consumer response said that many people “are not receiving timely responses to their complaints” and that for those facing urgent situations, like losing their home to an imminent foreclosure, “there is simply no one at the C.F.P.B. to help.”

Christopher Peterson, a professor at the University of Utah’s Quinney College of Law and an expert in consumer law, said, “I still think it’s worth complaining.” It’s not yet clear, he said, how legal fights over efforts to “de-staff” the consumer bureau will be resolved, but the law requires the bureau to maintain a complaint process.

After showing an error message for weeks, the consumer bureau’s website now opens directly onto its complaint portal.

You can also complain to the consumer protection arm of your state attorney general’s consumer office, Mr. Peterson said. State regulators may not always have the same resources and expertise as federal agencies, he said, but they may take on a larger enforcement role if the consumer bureau is diminished.

Ms. Cohen also noted that if you had certain types of government-backed mortgages, like one insured by the Federal Housing Administration, you could contact HUD’s national servicing center, which works with borrowers to prevent foreclosure. Cuts to HUD’s budget may curtail the servicing center’s functions, she said, but as of now it remains an option.

Some consumer loans require private arbitration of disputes outside the courts, but that’s not the case with mortgages, Mr. Peterson said. If you believe you were overcharged or otherwise mistreated, you can bring legal action yourself. Such claims can be complicated, he said, but because a home purchase “can affect your financial destiny for a long period of time,” a lawsuit may be worth it.

One way to find a lawyer who specializes in consumer rights law is to search the website of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.



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When Elected Leaders Pursue Risky Policies, What Can Stop Them?

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It has been a chaotic few weeks in geopolitics.

At the beginning of the month, President Trump announced tariffs that threw the global economy into turmoil. Investors panicked, stock markets plunged, and analysts predicted an imminent recession.

Mr. Trump insisted that he would not change course, even as trillions of dollars in investments vaporized. It was only when the markets for U.S. government bonds began to show signs of distress that he recently issued a partial, temporary reprieve.

Although global markets became somewhat calmer after Mr. Trump stepped back from some of his tariffs, his apparent willingness to provoke severe distress in the stock market raises a crucial question: When governments make unpopular or ill-advised decisions, what can force them to back down?

In healthy democracies, and even in many stable autocracies, leaders usually come under soft pressure to moderate their policies. They’re influenced not just by elections, but also by warnings from advisers, allies and powerful constituencies like business owners.

“We think of accountability as something that happens at the ballot box, or in a courtroom,” said Elizabeth Saunders, a Columbia University political scientist. “We vote leaders out of office, or we bring charges against them.”

But in fact, she said, leaders are more often kept in check by other, less formal types of pressure and limits, such as advisers who threaten to resign if an ill-conceived policy continues, or fellow lawmakers who warn of electoral consequences.

But if leaders amass enough power, they can ignore that soft pressure and push through unpopular policies — even if they are catastrophically damaging. In those cases, they may only respond to tougher forms of pressure, like impeachment, mass uprisings or upheaval in the bond markets.

The recent histories of countries like Turkey, India and, to some extent, Britain, offer lessons in how this phenomenon plays out.

In 2022, Liz Truss, Britain’s newly appointed prime minister, announced a plan for sweeping tax cuts financed by government borrowing. Markets reacted very badly: Stocks, the British currency and demand for British government bonds all plummeted.

(A quick primer on bonds: When governments, companies or other institutions sell bonds, they are borrowing money from investors. So bonds are basically I.O.U.’s.)

Leaders of nations tend to be especially sensitive to turmoil in the market for government bonds, because they use bonds to finance their operations.

Faced with a bond market meltdown, Ms. Truss, like Mr. Trump, was forced to reverse course within days, and she resigned two months later. Under Britain’s parliamentary system, Ms. Truss’s fellow lawmakers had an easier path to pressure her to step down as her party’s leader. Mr. Trump, by contrast, isn’t under the same constraints.

In the past, softer forms of pressure than bond market crises have often been enough to restrain American presidents.

In 1973, for example, the “Saturday Night Massacre” of resignations from President Richard Nixon’s Justice Department provoked a surge in public support for impeachment, contributing to the chain reaction of public disapproval that eventually led to Mr. Nixon’s resignation from office less than a year later.

In subsequent years, just the threat of mass resignations was often enough. “In a normal presidential administration, threats to resign might happen, but actual resignations in protest are very rare,” said Ms. Saunders of Columbia. “Far more common — yet mostly hidden until reported later in the press or in history books — are the threats to resign that never actually happen.”

In 2004, for example, President George W. Bush agreed to change parts of his surveillance policy after senior Justice Department officials, including the attorney general and the director of the F.B.I., threatened to resign.

But to work as a constraint, such resignations must have the potential to impose costs, such as damage to the president’s chances of re-election, or limits to a policy agenda.

That does not seem to be true for Mr. Trump, because these resignations also remove internal critics who might act as roadblocks to his policies, and cost him little support. The lesson Mr. Trump and his inner circle appear to have taken from his first term is that in his second, he should be more careful to surround himself with people who are loyal to his agenda, and should fire or punish those who are not.

When Danielle Sassoon, the acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, resigned in protest of the Trump administration’s decision to drop criminal charges against the mayor of New York City, in what she called a political quid pro quo, her actions did not lead to a substantial fall in public support for Mr. Trump. Nor did her resignation impede Mr. Trump’s policy agenda. In fact, it may have smoothed its path. Another attorney dropped the charges against New York’s mayor, who remains in office.

For Mr. Trump, resignations “are an upside,” Ms. Saunders said. “They are part of the point.”

Insulation from most forms of pressure is more typical of semi-democratic “hybrid” systems, in which leaders often manage to amass so much power that they are no longer sensitive to soft limits — or even to many harder ones. If leaders are unmoved by dissent or public pressure, they may stick to damaging policies long past the point of disaster.

In Turkey at the beginning of this decade, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursued an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates in the face of high inflation, the opposite of mainstream economic advice. He refused to change course even as inflation rates climbed to 80 percent and the cost of living soared. It was only after the 2023 election, in which he did worse than expected and had to go to a runoff against the opposition candidate, that he eventually changed course, installing a respected finance minister and a new head of the central bank to pursue a more traditional macroeconomic policy.

“I think Erdogan realized the extent to which economic grievances may have posed a threat to his re-election even on a playing field heavily tipped in his favor,” said Lisel Hintz, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University who studies Turkish politics. But it was too late to reverse much of the damage. Turkey is still struggling with inflation, high government borrowing costs and a cost of living crisis.

The timing of elections can also blunt their effectiveness as a check. A leader years away from re-election may feel less pressure to keep voters happy in the short term. In India in 2017, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a sudden policy of “demonetization,” in which he effectively invalidated the country’s paper currency overnight, without warning.

The consequences were severe, including a cash shortage so acute that it drove some citizens to suicide, and the policy failed to achieve its stated goal of punishing criminals and tax evaders. But by the time India’s next national election arrived in 2019, the pain of the crisis had faded, and Mr. Modi’s party won handily.

Sometimes leaders refuse to change course for so long that they encounter one of the ultimate hard limits: being forced from office by a mass uprising. In Sri Lanka in 2021, the government banned chemical fertilizers, one of many policies imposed in an effort to shore up dwindling foreign currency reserves caused by years of economic mismanagement. The government faced a relatively weak opposition, and refused to lift the ban despite an outcry from farmers. “Gotabaya Rajapaksa was leading the administration at the time, and he had appointed his brothers and his nephew to his cabinet,” my New York Times colleague Emily Schmall, who covered the crisis, explained at the time. “He didn’t take a lot of counsel from outside his family.”

By the time Mr. Rajapaksa reversed the policy seven months later, it was too late. Cratering crop yields contributed to an economic crisis and high inflation. The government struggled to borrow money, and imports became scarce, causing shortages of fuel and food that brought mass protests to the streets.

Soon, it was all over. Protesters overran government buildings, and Mr. Rajapaksa, whose family had held power for most of the previous two decades, submitted his resignation in 2022.

For Mr. Trump, the last few weeks have revealed that his tolerance for risk and chaos remain high, leaving Americans uncertain about the future. And that could be costly. As Diane Swonk, the chief economist of KPMG, told my colleague Talmon Joseph Smith, “uncertainty is its own tax on the economy.”



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