So you’re about to graduate from college. Congratulations. But now you have to think about finding a job and, sooner than you may prefer, starting to repay your student loans.

It’s especially important to understand your options, experts on student borrowing say, because many aspects of the federal student loan system are in flux.

The system, which has always been challenging to navigate, is only now creaking back into full operation after years of Covid-era pauses on payments and collections. And court challenges to a low-cost repayment option, along with program changes floated by the Trump administration and House Republicans, have created a potentially confusing environment for new graduates.

“They’re graduating into a time of uncertainty around what their repayment options will look like,” said Abby Shafroth, the director of the National Consumer Law Center’s Student Loan Borrower Assistance Project.

One repayment plan, known as SAVE and introduced by President Joseph R. Biden Jr., significantly shrank monthly student loan payments depending on a borrower’s income and household size. But the program is in legal limbo because of a court challenge by two groups of Republican-led states. It’s unavailable now, and may not remain an option.

Three other, less generous “income-driven” repayment plans that link monthly payments to a borrower’s income remain available, but details could change. A measure under review in the House would reduce the various income-linked options to just one.

“Borrowers are getting dropped into a chaotic system that’s changing in real time,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, the legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center, an advocacy group.

The upshot is that new graduates should keep in mind that the repayment plan they initially choose may look different in the coming months or years, depending on court decisions, government action and the effective date of any changes.

“They should focus on what’s available now and which plan makes the most sense now,” Ms. Shafroth said, “and expect they may have to revisit options later.”

Here’s what to know.

Do I have to start repaying my federal student loans right away?

Most federal student loans come with a grace period of at least six months after graduation. So you have some breathing room to get your life sorted and to choose a repayment plan. If you graduate in May, you typically won’t have to start paying until around November.

What should I be doing now to help repayment go smoothly?

Student borrowers are required before graduation to complete student loan “exit counseling” — often via a 30-minute online tutorial — to learn about their loan obligations and repayment options. Pay attention to the information because it can keep you on track, said Michele Zampini, the senior director of college affordability with the Institute for College Access & Success, an advocacy group.

Familiarize yourself with the available repayment plans, said Betsy Mayotte, the president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, which offers free assistance to borrowers. You can check the Federal Student Aid website to compare options and see any updates that may affect your loans.

It may sound obvious, but make sure that your loan servicer — the company that the Education Department has hired to send statements, collect payments and otherwise manage your loan — knows how to get in touch with you once you leave school, Ms. Mayotte said.

If you don’t know which servicer you have, log on to your account at the federal StudentAid.gov website to find out. Then get in touch to update your contact information, including your addresses for both email and physical mail. (You probably created the account when you applied for financial aid using the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, form.)

If you have loans from outside the federal government, such as a private bank, those won’t show up on the Federal Student Aid website. If you can’t find the original loan documents, try looking for the lender’s name on your credit report, Ms. Mayotte said.

When should I choose a repayment plan?

Some experts said borrowers should apply as soon as possible for an income-driven plan to get their applications in the queue. But Scott Buchanan, the executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, an industry group, said borrowers in a grace period should wait to submit an application for an income-driven plan until a month or two before they are scheduled to start paying. If they apply more than 90 days before then, he said, their servicer will reject it as a “stale” application. For those who have to start paying in November, he said, submitting a form in September makes sense.

On the other hand, Mr. Buchanan said, don’t wait until the last minute or you’ll end up scrambling to put a plan in place.

Processing of income-driven repayment plan applications had been on hold as a result of the legal challenge to the SAVE plan. But the Federal Student Aid website, last updated on Monday, says that servicers “have begun processing applications” and that the site will be updated as new information becomes available. There is a backlog of some 1.9 million applications.

How do I know how much my monthly payment will be?

Your monthly payment amount depends on which repayment plan you choose. The standard plan — the default option, unless you choose another — calls for repaying loan balances in 10 years.

Income-driven plans can lower your payments by tying them to your income level and household size. The repayment period, depending on the plan, lasts 20 to 25 years.

To get payment estimates under the various options, enter information about yourself and your loans into the Education Department’s online “loan simulator” tool.

Mark Kantrowitz, a financial-aid expert, advised borrowers to choose the plan with the highest payment they can afford. They’ll pay less interest over the life of the loan and will pay off the debt sooner. Borrowers can use “forbearances,” or temporary deferments, during short-term financial struggles and switch to a more affordable plan for longer-term difficulties.

Are student loan forgiveness programs still available?

Yes, but it’s complicated. For instance, borrowers in the Income-Based Repayment plan, which Congress created, can continue to have their loans forgiven if they make enough qualifying payments.

The Education Department, however, has temporarily paused time-based forgiveness for borrowers in two other income-driven plans, known as Pay as You Earn (PAYE) and Income-Contingent Repayment (I.C.R.), because a court ruling on the Biden administration’s SAVE plan raised questions about those plans as well.

Payments made in PAYE and I.C.R., however, can still count toward forgiveness if the borrower transfers to an Income-Based Repayment plan later, Ms. Shafroth said. She added that payments in PAYE and I.C.R. still counted toward the public-service loan forgiveness program, which erases remaining loan balances after 10 years of work in public-sector or nonprofit jobs. (People using the public-service option generally enroll in an income-driven plan.)

Additional changes may be coming, The Trump administration has solicited public comments on a review of the public-service program. President Trump signed an executive order in March that said the administration planned to exclude from the program certain organizations, such as those that “advance illegal immigration.”

Hundreds of comments have been posted online, many of them in support of the public-service program. Comments will be accepted through Thursday.

The worst is yet to come

Wall Street had been anxiously awaiting the latest quarterly results from Amazon and Apple to see how badly the companies — of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants, perhaps the most vulnerable to President Trump’s trade war — would get hit by tariffs.

The answer: not too badly. But upcoming quarters may be messier, showing that not even hugely powerful corporations are immune to Trump’s assault on global commerce.

The highlights:

• Apple exceeded analyst expectations in the most recent quarter, with $24.78 billion in profit and $95.36 billion in sales.

• Amazon squeaked past Wall Street forecasts, with $18.4 billion in operating income and $155.7 billion in revenue.

Despite steadily climbing worries about tariffs in the just-finished quarter, Tim Cook, Apple’s C.E.O., said the company hadn’t seen any sign of customers pulling forward their purchases of iPhones in case levies forced the company to raise prices. That wasn’t quite the case at Amazon, with Andy Jassy, the company’s C.E.O., saying that there was “heightened buying” of certain products.

The future looks grimmer. Cook warned that despite exemptions from tariffs on Chinese-made iPhones, won after his personal lobbying of Trump, his company may face $900 million in costs in the current quarter because of import duties. That’s assuming no new fees enter the picture. (Fun fact: The word “tariff” came up 27 times during Apple’s earnings call with analysts.)

Jassy acknowledged uncertainty, telling analysts, “Obviously, none of us know exactly where tariffs will settle down or when.” (Tariff word count from the call: 17.)

Other operations are facing pressure. Apple’s services division has often outperformed device sales. But a federal judge recently ordered the company to stop collecting commissions from some app sales, a decision Apple is appealing. And the company could lose some of the $20 billion in annual payments that Google gives it to be the default search engine on the Safari browser if the Justice Department persuades a federal judge to impose stiff antitrust penalties on the search giant.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s cloud computing division, a crucial business for the company, came in slightly below Wall Street expectations and lagged behind Microsoft’s. Some analysts also worry that advertising, an increasingly important source of revenue, could face pressure from tariffs.

The companies are taking steps to soften the blow from tariffs. Cook said that a “majority” of iPhones sold in the U.S. during the current quarter would come from India rather than China. Other products, like iPads, would be made in Vietnam.

And Jassy said Amazon was “pretty maniacally focused” on avoiding big price increases, in part by buying up extra inventory and helping sellers on its marketplace do the same. That said, some merchants have tested how much they can raise prices without being punished by Amazon, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Wall Street remains cautious, with shares in both companies lower in premarket trading. Apple has fared well for now because it hasn’t had to raise prices, Ben Bajarin of the tech research firm Creative Strategies told The Times. But, he added, “The question is: If more tariffs hit, then what happens?”

And Gil Luria of the research firm D.A. Davidson warned that shareholders “may be a little disappointed by margins and margin guidance, which could create a concern about Amazon absorbing tariff costs.”

DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU

We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you’re doing.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

A crypto deal puts President Trump’s conflicts in the spotlight. The state-backed Emirati artificial intelligence giant MGX said it would use USD1, a Trump-affiliated stablecoin, to make a $2 billion investment in the crypto exchange Binance. The transaction could generate hundreds of millions of dollars for the Trump family, further raising concerns about the president’s conflicted relationship with crypto. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, cited the news to denounce a proposed stablecoin law that she said would “make it easier for the President and his family to line their own pockets.”

Microsoft drops a longtime legal adviser for one that is fighting Trump. Lawyers from Simpson Thacher & Bartlett — which agreed last month to donate $125 million in pro bono services to Trump-favored causes — stepped back from representing the tech giant in a lawsuit related to its takeover of Activision Blizzard. They’re being replaced by lawyers from Jenner & Block, which has sued to block an executive order targeting the firm. It isn’t clear why, but it’s a sign that opposing Trump won’t necessarily cost a law firm business.

Kohl’s fires its C.E.O. for sending business to his romantic partner. The retailer said it had dismissed Ashley Buchanan, who had held the role only since November, “for cause” for directing the company to do business with a vendor with whom he had “undisclosed conflicts of interest.” The Wall Street Journal reports that Buchanan had Kohl’s sign a multimillion-dollar consulting agreement with Boston Consulting Group, where his partner, Chandra Holt, is an adviser.

What to watch in Friday’s jobs report

The labor market has been on autopilot, with employers on a hiring spree that has chugged on for roughly five years. That streak is expected to continue with Friday’s jobs report — but many economists predict complications as companies brace for more fallout from President Trump’s trade war.

A lighter-than-expected readout could bolster calls by Wall Street for the Fed to lower interest rates soon, especially after Wednesday’s tepid inflation report and lousy G.D.P. report. While economists and traders say they believe a rate cut in May is unlikely, the central bank will come under more pressure if Friday’s numbers are especially soft.

What to expect: Hiring will probably have risen by about 135,000 in April, down sharply from the 228,000 added in March, economists polled by FactSet estimate; that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent. Wage growth is expected to remain little changed from the previous report, again growing at 0.3 percent clip on a three-month rolling average.

(It may take several more months before federal job losses driven by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency start showing up in the reports.)

Recent economic data has been worrisome. ADP’s private payroll report on Wednesday showed a hiring slowdown. There tend to be discrepancies between reports by ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but weakness elsewhere — evident from Thursday’s ISM manufacturing data — suggests a rough patch ahead.

“Firms are pivoting towards layoffs and away from hiring freezes and attrition to control costs amid weakening demand and an uncertain economic environment,” Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note on Thursday, predicting trouble going forward for the manufacturing sector.

The real doozy could come next month. That’s when economists expect to see the fallout from Trump’s trade war and his crackdown on immigration eat into hiring. “The longer large tariffs last, the greater the chance for tariff-related layoffs,” Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, wrote in an investor note this week.

A $10 T-shirt might now cost $24.50

American shoppers looking to buy an inexpensive T-shirt or pair of shoes on Shein are in for a surprise at checkout. On Friday, Trump ended a shipping rule that has underpinned the explosion of e-commerce and its disruption of traditional retail business models. The tax exemption has let packages from China valued at under $800 come into the U.S. tariff-free.

Shein and Temu, the popular Chinese shopping apps, relied on the so-called de minimis loophole. They’re already raising their prices because of the change.

Calls to reform de minimis predate President Trump. But as Danielle Kaye writes for DealBook, his rollout is sowing chaos for e-commerce sellers of all sizes, not just the fast-fashion giants.

In Trump’s view, de minimis is a “scam.” He said this week that it hurts small businesses. The president has also said that the exemption needed to end as a way to stop the flow of fentanyl. Trump tried to start taxing low-value Chinese goods in February, but he walked back the change after it caused a pileup of packages at the border.

He’s trying again and, this time, it might stick.

Neither Democrats nor Republicans like the exemption. Last fall, the Biden administration cited similar concerns when introducing a plan to reduce these lower-cost shipments. And traditional retailers that send big bulk shipments to their U.S. warehouses have also long bemoaned the rule, saying it puts them at a disadvantage. Companies delivered $46 billion-worth of packages under the provision, according to a Nomura estimate.

Fast-fashion giants are in the spotlight. Shein and Temu have become shopping behemoths thanks in part to the exemption. Their customers have gotten used to the discounts and speed — $15 clothes, shoes, toys, household items, all at their doorstep within days. Together, Shein and Temu generate well over $100 billion in gross sales.

Amazon drew Trump’s anger recently when it reportedly considered following the lead of these e-commerce sites by itemizing the tariff costs in the prices. Temu started detailing the cost that tariffs would add to their purchases, while Shein is warning that “tariffs are included in the price you pay.”

But ending de minimis is not necessarily existential for these companies. It might just mean changes to their supply chains. They’ve already started to diversify by working with more U.S.-based sellers, and Shein has considered shifting some production outside of China, according to a report from The Financial Times.

It’s not just the big players. Lots of people who sell on sites like Etsy, eBay and Shopify rely heavily on the de minimis tax exemption.

Kelly Kendall, who runs a craft supplies business in the Chicago area, imports most of her products directly from China — tax-free, through de minimis. She uses those materials to make kits that she sells on Etsy. Now, her business model is up in the air. “I don’t think people understand the larger impact for really small businesses,” Kendall said.

This doesn’t affect just U.S. businesses. The new taxes apply for all goods made in China, even if they’re shipped to the U.S. indirectly. Some Canadian vendors who sell Chinese-made goods said they’re looking to build out their Canadian customer base in response to the de minimis change.

THE SPEED READ

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• Tariff front-running didn’t just distort G.D.P. figures, an economist argues: It also signals an actual slowdown in growth. (Apricitas Economics)

• Bill Belichick’s relationship with Jordon Hudson has been fodder for gossip sites. But it also cost U.N.C., whose football team he coaches, a deal with HBO. (The Athletic)

• “Trump Wants a New Air Force One So Badly He’s Refurbishing a Qatari Plane” (WSJ)

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

The two largest U.S. oil companies reported their lowest first-quarter profits in years on Friday as they braced for the economic fallout from President Trump’s trade war, which has weakened consumer confidence and pushed oil prices down.

U.S. crude prices slipped below $60 a barrel this week, a threshold below which many companies cannot make money drilling new wells. Crude oil is now about $20 a barrel cheaper than it was just before Mr. Trump took office. Not only is oil fetching less, companies are paying more for steel and other materials because of tariffs the president has imposed.

There are signs that some companies are already pulling back as a result.

As of last week, the number of rigs drilling wells in the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. oil field, had fallen 3 percent in a month, according to Baker Hughes, an oil field service provider. That company’s customers have been putting off discretionary expenses, and spending across the industry is likely to fall this year, Baker Hughes executives said last week.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, said months ago that it would spend less in 2025, and it has not changed its annual production or capital spending forecasts since.

“We’re comfortable with where we are right now,” Eimear Bonner, the company’s chief financial officer, said in an interview. “We’ve navigated cycles before. We know what to do.”

The financial results that Chevron and Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. oil and gas company, reported on Friday reflect the market before Mr. Trump announced his latest round of tariffs. Around the same time, members of the producers cartel known as OPEC Plus surprised the market by saying its members would speed up plans to pump more oil.

Chevron’s first-quarter profit fell more than a third to $3.5 billion, missing analyst expectations, as the company earned less for each barrel of oil it produced. Lower margins in refining also hurt earnings.

Exxon’s profit of $7.7 billion in the first three months of the year also came up shy of analyst forecasts collected by FactSet. Earnings fell around 6 percent from a year earlier.

“In this uncertain market, our shareholders can be confident in knowing that we’re built for this,” Darren Woods, Exxon’s chief executive, said in a statement.

The question for many companies is how long oil prices will remain around $60 a barrel or less. If they slip to $50, domestic production could fall roughly 8 percent in a year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The United States is the world’s largest oil producer.

Companies are cutting costs where they can as they wait for greater clarity on U.S. trade policy, said Joseph Esteves, chief executive of Maine Pointe, a consulting firm that specializes in operations and supply chain issues.

“It’s getting to the point of no rock unturned, no couch cushion unexplored,” Mr. Esteves said.

Ms. Bonner said Chevron was experiencing a “limited direct impact” from tariffs. The company has been working to mitigate the effects by buying supplies such as steel locally, she said.

Chevron faces a late-May deadline to wind down activity in Venezuela after Mr. Trump took steps to reverse a Biden-era policy that allowed more oil to be produced in the country. The new rules are already having an effect. The company has been unable to load oil onto ships to be exported because of changes to its license, Ms. Bonner said.

“We’re just continuing to engage with the administration on the topic,” she said.

When the Covid pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.

A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.

While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.

The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.

The reason consumers haven’t felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.

By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.

“U.S. consumers will within a few weeks see empty shelves in clothing stores, toy stores, hardware stores and retail drugstores, and higher prices of the goods that still are on the shelves,” he said.

Molson Hart, the chief executive of Viahart, a toy company, wrote on X: “It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet. By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.”

The decline in Chinese imports will be amplified on Friday, when the United States eliminates so-called de minimis treatment for Chinese goods. The rule has allowed products up to $800 to avoid tariffs as long as they are shipped directly to consumers. It has boosted the business model of companies like Temu and Shein, and it has resulted in a surge of individually addressed packages to the United States, many of which are shipped by air.

Supporters of the change say that this tariff loophole has given Chinese shippers an unfair advantage and hurt American businesses. But the decision to get rid of it is already resulting in higher prices for U.S. consumers. And the change is expected to weigh on airlines and private carriers like FedEx, which have steady business delivering small-dollar goods.

Port workers and logistics companies have been expecting their own disruptions. At the port of Los Angeles, the main entry point for Chinese products arriving in the United States, imports surged in recent months as businesses and consumers tried to stock up on goods in advance of the tariffs coming into effect. But that activity has now started to decline.

The number of containers arriving at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop more than 35 percent next week compared with the same period last year, port data shows. Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, said that a quarter of the ships that had been scheduled for May had canceled because of light volume.

As of about two weeks ago, goods coming into the port from China have been “very few and far between,” Mr. Seroka said.

Data shows that sales of heavy trucks have fallen sharply, too, suggesting that companies in the logistics space expect to be moving fewer goods in the future.

Trade experts say that companies have stockpiled enough inventory in recent months that, if the White House reverses course soon and significantly drops tariffs on China, much of the pain for the U.S. economy and consumers can be avoided. Data from the Institute for Supply Management shows that U.S. inventories are at their highest level in more than two years.

Gabriel Wildau, a managing director at Teneo, who advises companies on doing business with China, said that the Chinese goods that U.S. retailers had stockpiled in the first three months of the year would give stores some time before they would need to raise prices. But if the situation is not changed quickly, American consumers will feel the impact of trade changes unfold over the next three to six months, he said.

“We’re going to have higher prices and, in some cases, empty shelves,” he said.

Trump officials have admitted that there could be some disruptions for consumers. The president seemed to acknowledge on Wednesday that his trade changes could lead to fewer goods and higher prices.

“You know, somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves are going to be open,’” Mr. Trump said from the White House. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

But administration officials have said any pain will be minimal. At a White House briefing on Tuesday, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that he did not expect to see supply chain shocks from U.S. tariffs on China. “I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this,” he said.

Some firms that are in a more fragile financial position have not been able to stockpile and are rapidly being forced out of business. Even if the Trump administration finds a way to reduce its tariffs on China, it’s not clear that the levies will fall enough to meaningfully restart trade.

Many companies say that tariffs above 50 percent on Chinese imports are enough to stop trade entirely. With tariffs now at a minimum of 145 percent, and in some cases much higher, that would mean that the Trump administration may have to drop its China tariffs by at least 100 percentage points to meaningfully restart the flow of goods.

Trump officials have said they believe the current tariff rate with China is unsustainable, but they have concerns about Chinese trade practices, and they will be under pressure to show that they have secured significant concessions from China in return for dropping the tariffs.

Ryan Petersen, the chief executive of Flexport, a supply chain company, said that, even before the president hiked tariffs on China to 145 percent this month, the tariffs the Trump administration had put on China were high, at a minimum of 54 percent.

“The reality is that 54 percent was already an incredibly high tariff rate,” Mr. Petersen said. “It depends on how far they walk it back. If they walk it back to 25 percent, maybe this all becomes a non-event.”

With so much unclear about where global trade is headed, companies are freezing their plans for expansion and halting new orders.

Data shows that new orders from manufacturers have turned down sharply this year, while companies have trimmed back their plans for capital expenditures. Some major companies have stopped issuing guidance for their sales and profits. Mercedes-Benz on Wednesday suspended its financial forecasts for 2025, as did Stellantis, which makes the Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands.

It’s not clear how quickly the current supply chain challenges could be resolved. But during the pandemic, supply chains disruptions took much longer to work their way through the economy than most forecasters had anticipated.

Economists who initially expected price increases to be transitory were surprised at inflationary pressures that lingered for years. Small impacts also had a way of snowballing through supply chains — for example, a disruption in supply from one or two companies making small parts for cars or other machinery could end up stopping a major manufacturing plant, which found it had no alternative for the part.

And when the economy turned back on again after initial pandemic disruptions, the process was not smooth. Americans saw pileups at the ports and shortages of some goods, all of which ultimately contributed to higher prices.

Mr. Petersen said that companies that operated container ships had already canceled a quarter of all sailings to the United States from China, and they are rerouting their ships to travel to Southeast Asia and Europe instead. Even if the Trump administration removes its China tariffs and U.S. consumer demand for Chinese products resumes, ships won’t be in the right location immediately to carry the same volume of goods, he said.

“You’ll see high prices, you’ll see delays,” Mr. Petersen added. “The longer you wait to make changes, the more severe the shock will be.”

Danielle Kaye contributed reporting.

Musk or not, Tesla’s challenges remain

Tesla shareholders appear relieved that Elon Musk seems set to stay on as C.E.O., after the automaker’s chair denied a report that the board had explored finding his successor. Company shares are up in premarket trading.

But even if Musk — who has said he’s dialing back his government cost-cutting work — is sticking around, the company still faces operational and competitive challenges. And then there’s the question of how much time he can still devote to Tesla, and whether his plans for the company will work out, though Musk has a track record of proving his critics wrong time and again.

What Tesla is disputing: The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla’s board had reached out to executive search firms about a month ago to work out a formal C.E.O. succession process. At the time, Musk was consumed with his work in Washington and Tesla’s sales and profits were dropping.

A statement posted on X attributed to Robyn Denholm, Tesla’s chair, called the report “absolutely false,” adding, “The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead.”

Musk staying on doesn’t change the difficult position Tesla is in. Shares in the company have plunged sharply since December and remain volatile (though they’re still outperforming the S&P 500). Executives last week largely chalked up a 71 percent year-on-year drop in first-quarter earnings to retooling Model Y assembly lines. But the company faces growing competition, especially from lower-cost Chinese rivals, and a likely hit from tariffs.

Then there’s the question of whether political opposition to Musk is hurting sales and hiring. The Journal reports that a Tesla executive said it was getting harder to recruit new talent because of Musk and said it would be better if he resigned; that executive was reportedly later forced out.

How much time Musk will devote to Tesla is another question. During last week’s earnings call, the entrepreneur insisted that he would continue pushing Tesla to become the leader in autonomous vehicle taxi services. Before Denholm’s statement was published on X, Dan Ives, a research analyst and prominent Tesla booster, predicted on X that Musk would remain C.E.O. “for at least five years.”

But according to The Journal, Musk confided in an associate that he was still frustrated at working nonstop at Tesla, especially after his huge pay package had been repeatedly struck down in court. Musk also leads nearly a half-dozen other companies, including SpaceX, the newly combined xAI and X and Neuralink. And many analysts, and reportedly Tesla executives, question his robotaxi vision.

Ross Gerber, an outspoken Tesla investor and Musk critic, told Bloomberg Television that the billionaire should instead become the carmaker’s chair and let someone else take over — perhaps J.B. Straubel, a Tesla co-founder and board member who has reportedly been seeking to allay restive shareholders.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Apple is ordered to loosen its grip on its App Store. A federal judge in California, who rebuked the iPhone maker for thwarting a previous ruling in a lawsuit over control of the marketplace, told the company to stop collecting commissions on some app sales and accused some executives of lying in court. It’s a major victory for Epic Games, the Fortnite maker that has sought to challenge Apple’s and Google’s control of their app stores.

Washington and Kyiv strike a deal to share Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The agreement, announced on Wednesday, will create a joint investment fund, though details remain unclear. Ukraine supporters hope the pact will give President Trump a stake in the country’s fate, as the outlook for efforts to end Russia’s war there remain unclear.

Elon Musk suggests his cost-cutting team should examine the Fed. The billionaire said at a White House event that the so-called Department of Government Efficiency should “definitely” train its sights on the central bank, citing a costly overhaul of its headquarters. (The Fed finances itself with income from securities it holds.) It’s the latest instance of Trump and his allies taking aim at the Fed.

The economy started shrinking before Trump’s tariffs

The uncertainty gripping corporate America as a result of President Trump’s tariffs hasn’t hurt the tech giants — too much. Microsoft recorded big quarterly gains, and Meta’s first-quarter revenue beat investor expectations.

The results lifted markets after hours. But they contrasted sharply with new — and dismal — economic data from some of the world’s largest economies.

Recap: The U.S. economy shrank in the first three months of the year, the first period of negative growth since the first quarter of 2022. The data covers the period just before the bulk of Trump’s tariffs took effect but reflects worry about his trade policies. (Trump blamed former President Joe Biden for reading.)

In China, export orders plummeted in April to the lowest levels since 2022, and a measure of the country’s factory activity also fell. And on Wednesday the Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast, citing trade fights.

One bright spot: U.S. inflation cooled in March.

Worth noting: There was a lot of noise in the latest figures. Trump’s tariff threats set off a huge drop in net exports, cutting nearly five percentage points off G.D.P.

The report is unlikely to change the Fed’s wait-and-see approach to lowering interest rates, Paul Stanley, the head investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management, wrote in a research note. Economists were expecting a contraction in the first quarter, and the markets were already pricing in a downturn in growth.

Across almost every industry, businesses have withdrew their financial forecasts, scaled back growth estimates and warned of higher costs. Just in: General Motors lowered its full-year profit outlook, citing a multibillion-dollar hit from tariffs, and McDonald’s reported that global same-store sales, particularly in the U.S., were down in the first quarter.

Trump is widely expected to sew up new trade agreements, but the White House’s vague pronouncements on deal talks and the president’s continued attacks on business leaders have made corporate planning nearly impossible. (Washington recently contacted Beijing to start trade negotiations, according to Chinese state media.)

Many economists say that things are about to get worse. “Unless there is a quick unwinding of the tariffs now hitting the economy, a recession will take place in midyear,” Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM US, wrote in a note.

Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, told DealBook that “the economy has clearly been changing trajectory in the last couple of weeks in a way that makes last quarter’s G.D.P. report feel much less relevant.”

Inflation picking up in the first quarter, and overall uncertainty, could forestall hiring, Adams added. Some might consider that the perfect recipe for stagflation.

What to look for next: Given the stark changes to the economy in April, the jobs report due out on Friday will be closely watched, especially by the Fed. Economists forecast an addition of about 130,000 jobs, down sharply from the 228,000 added in March.

DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU

We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you’re doing.

Rory McIlroy teams up with TPG

Fresh off finally securing a career grand slam with a thrilling win at the Masters, Rory McIlroy, the world’s second-ranked golfer, is rounding out another corner of his life: investing.

McIlroy’s investment firm, Symphony Ventures, is joining forces with the private equity firm TPG to start TPG Sports, an investment fund that will place bets on businesses across the sports industry, DealBook is first to report.

“Sports is undergoing a big transformation,” McIlroy told DealBook. “There is a lot of investment going into the sports world and trying to make it more professional — and trying to bring it into the 21st century.”

McIlroy has a long track record in investing. He started Symphony Ventures with Sean O’Flaherty, his business partner, in 2019. (Both men will be operating partners for TPG Sports.)

Investments by Symphony Ventures include Golf Genius, a golf tournament software platform, and Puttery, an immersive mini-golf experience. In 2022, McIlroy also co-founded a company that helped create TGL, the team-based high-tech golf league with investors that include Arthur Blank and Steve Cohen.

McIlroy’s investment focus led him to TPG. The firm brought him on as an investor in some of its previous deals, like its buying a stake in the golf course management company Troon in 2021.

TPG brings to its sports bet extensive experience in media and other related industries, through deals with DirecTV and Creative Artists Agency.

TPG is making its official foray into sports as investors face a volatile landscape, with President Trump’s tariffs rattling the stock market and analysts saying a recession is becoming more likely.

“Probably the best opportunities that we’ve seen and invested in over the past 30 years have also come at moments of uncertainty,” said Todd Sisitsky, the president of TPG. The firm is starting TPG Sports with a secured investment commitment from Lunate, an investment fund based in Abu Dhabi.

The world still speaks U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar has fallen about 9 percent in the past three months, according to an index that tracks its performance against a basket of major trading partners. Not since the 1970s has the currency performed so badly in a president’s first 100 days.

The drop isn’t surprising. The U.S. economic outlook is far cloudier than it was on Inauguration Day, as President Trump’s tariffs set the stage for slower growth and higher inflation. U.S. assets look far less attractive now.

But could there be something more existential afoot? Questions are swirling about the dollar’s global standing and whether after more than seven decades as the world’s most important currency, it’s on the cusp of shedding that status, Colby Smith writes for DealBook.

Trump’s policies and his threats to longstanding norms like the political independence of the central bank have prompted a rethink among investors about how much more exposure they want to have to U.S. assets. That skepticism looks likely to endure. “Something is in motion that is irreversible,” said Jens Nordvig of research firm Exante Data.

There are obvious caveats. Just because the dollar is weaker now, that does not mean it has lost all of its primacy. A sudden shift away from the United States still seems far-fetched because there are few places to go.

“The rest of the world is eager, if not desperate, to reduce reliance on the dollar as a payment and reserve currency,” said Eswar Prasad, a former official at the International Monetary Fund who is now at Cornell University. Attempts to weaponize the dollar through policies like sanctions would be less potent, and having multiple sources of liquidity during times of stress could make for a less fragile global financial system, some currency experts say.

“The reality though is that there are no robust alternatives,” Prasad said.

The euro is perhaps best positioned to eventually seize the opportunity created by Trump. It is a widely used and favored currency among central banks. There are now more euro-denominated safe assets available, as Germany and other countries increase spending. And the European Central Bank has also shown more willingness to serve as the region’s lender of last resort, a crucial function for an international currency.

When would the euro become a reserve currency? “We’re at the best position to become one in some years,” Luis de Guindos, the E.C.B.’s vice president, said recently. But there would have to be much more meaningful economic, financial and regulatory integration across Europe for that to happen. It will take time.

Other alternatives like China’s renminbi face even higher hurdles. Investors cannot transact freely in the country’s financial markets because of capital controls, and the currency is heavily managed by the government — two insurmountable barriers to the Chinese currency assuming a more global role.

Shifting away from the dollar presents as big a challenge as trying to shift the world away from using English, said Stephen Jen, a currency expert who runs Eurizon SLJ Capital.

“People can bicker on whether French is more beautiful or German more precise, but none of that matters — when more people speak English, more will learn to speak English,” he said. “Dollar liquidity is deep. No one administration can destroy the dollar, certainly not President Trump in 100 days.”

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